Welcome to.................................... The Pasco Real Estate Blog.com....... The Pinellas Real Estate Blog.com.... The Hillsborough Real Estate Blog.com, & The Hernando Real Estate Blog.com, hosted by John & Lisa Durkin, "The Topgun Team", where we discuss issues related to, and affecting Real Estate in Pasco County, Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Hernando County, and the greater Tampa Bay, Florida area. Comments and participation encouraged. Please join our discussion!

Well, this month's "beige book" form the Federal Reserve has no real surprises, but it does have a glimmer of good news for those of us in Florida and the Fed's 6th district.

Although their nationwide assessment was of a "weak" housing market and sluggish auto sales, the 6th district was characterized by modest business expansion and generally positive tourism. Although home sales and building were below year ago levels, the pace of the decline has lessened since the end of last year.

Overall, things in the northeast, north, and midwest, where our potential buyers may come from were fairly bleak in the report.  this is a concern because even though the blizzard conditions may again motivate emigration from the cold climates to sunny Florida, if they can not sell their homes, they will not be coming down here anytime soon.  So, while weather that motivates change up north is good, we must all cross our fingers for a better housing market there amongst those who intend to stay.

Florida Population Growth

Here's something along the lines of our last post on Coastal Population Trends - A new study by the University of Florida estimates that in spite of two bad hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2005, the number of year-round households in Florida has grown fifteen percent in the last six years.

Flagler County, whose Chamber of Commerce boasts the county as the 'fastest growing in the US",  had the largest growth rate with a 76 percent increase. The next highest by rate of growth were Sumter, Osceola, Walton, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Lee, and Lake counties. When measured purely by total numbers Miami-Dade had the largest increase. and 2006. It was followed by Hillsborough, Orange, Palm Beach, Lee, and Broward counties.

With the exception of Hillsborough, we didn't get an exceptional share of that growth in our area, but even at the average of fifteen percent growth for the NEXT six years it can only lead to more demand for housing and appreciation in prices.  For those in the game for the long haul, investment in the local real estate market will pay off. 

Coastal Population Trends

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, in its publication NOAA Population Trends Along the Coastal United States: 1980-2008; Fifty Three Percent (53%) of the population, or 153 million Americans, live in the 673 coastal communities of the United States. This is an increase of 33 million people since 1980. 

It is probably no surprise to anyone that the American population is moving away from the heartland to the coastal areas.  What that means is, in the long run, if you own a home in the interior, there will be less demand for it as the years go by.

On the other hand, if you have the foresight to buy along ANY coastal area, especially, coastal area that is underpriced, there will most likely be high demand, and thus higher appreciation and value in the future. The
Florida Gulf coast of Pasco, Pinellas, Hernando and Hillsborough Counties is some of the lowest, if not, THE LOWEST priced coastal area in the U.S., save for the hurricane battered coast of Mississippi.  Those who buy here now will realize the rewards that come with another 33 million people, OR MORE, migrating to the coastline in the next 28 year period.

Look for the NOAA's Population Trend report around 2030 to see if we were correct in our assessment!

PUT REAL ESTATE IN YOUR IRA!

Few people are aware that the federal tax laws allow them to open a self directed IRA that allows many more investment options than the stock market and mutual funds.  If you are investing in Real Estate for RETIREMENT, you may want to consider putting your holdings in an Individual RETIREMENT Account.  In fact, we are fairly certain that a financial advisor will tell you that you SHOULD put you investments into an IRA.  Why?  Because it will help your wealth grow faster, and tax free.

A self-directed IRA opens the door to many investment opportunities beyond traditional securities, bonds, CDs, and mutual funds. What kind of investments are permitted?  With the exception of certain prohibited transactions, a self-directed account enables investments in a wide range of both traditional and non-traditional assets. For example, some of the most popular options are Real Estate, Deeds of Trust and mortgages, secured and unsecured notes, and finally LLCs, corporations, partnerships and joint ventures.

We have most of our own investment property in a Self-Directed IRA.  We are experienced and knowledgable about the process.  If you would like assistance or have questions about doing the same, please call us or email us. 

We use Entrust of Tampa Bay, LLC as our Self-Directed IRA administrator. We are extremely happy with their program and service and give them our highest recommendation.  If you live in, or are considering investment in New Port Richey Real Estate, Port Richey Real Estate, Trinity Real Estate, Gulf Harbors Real Estate, Waterfront Real Estate, Pasco County Real Estate, Pinellas County Real Estate, or any Real Estate in the Tampa Bay area, for ling term or short term retirement purposes, please call John & Lisa Durkin, "The Topgun Team", at 727-858-8247, or email us at TheTopgunTeam@Yahoo.com.

If you live in the Tampa Bay area use the link below to contact Entrust of Tampa Bay, LLC to find out about their great program. Jack Callahan and Doug Davenport are professionals who will walk you through the entire process.  http://www.theentrustgroup.com/local/franchise.aspx?affiliate=11

If you live outside the Tampa Bay area you can visit the Entrust Group at www.TheEntrustGroup.com.

Last week the chief executive of the nation's largest homebuilder by volume said that 2007 would "stink" (quote changed to prevent bot spam) for his company.  Obviously, when someone in his position speaks so eloquently, people listen. Many of those people believe that his words are a strong signal that a recovery in the battered new home business is far away. As reported by NBC, speaking at an investor conference in New York, D.R. Horton CEO Donald J. Tomnitz said he expects to get more pricing power in 2008 but not before home prices continue their decline this year as builders try to sell the glut of houses currently on the market. “I don’t want to be too sophisticated here, but ’07 is going to (stink), all 12 months of the calendar year,” Tomnitz said.

In spite of Tomnitz' gloomy forecast, there is a little good news for Florida Real Estate Sellers and Realtors. According to Realtor magazine, "Price declines appear to be easing for single-family homes, according to a quarterly study by the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. Statewide existing-home median sales prices remained stable at $242,100 in the fourth quarter. A year ago, it was $245,600, a slight 1 percent decrease.  In 2001, the fourth-quarter statewide median sales price was $128,400, which reflects an increase of 88.5 percent over the five-year period.

The statewide median sales price for condos decreased 3 percent to $205,200 for the three-month period; a year ago, it was $212,100.  The study, which interviews 318 experts, including lawyers, financial advisers, title insurers, and real estate professionals, concluded that fundamentally the Florida market is strong. 'One important indicator of the real estate market is occupancy rates, and these appear to be stable or increasing in most markets, including apartments, office buildings, retail space, and industrial warehouse and distribution space,'  says Wayne Archer, director of the Bergstrom Center."

So, what does all this mean for us? It's gut check time baby!  Are you ready for the long war?  (we're not talking' about the Global War On Terror - we're talking' about the Florida Real Estate market!)

BUYERS - The time is NOW!  You'll not  find deals like this for a long time. The market is full of them.  If you're living in the freezing cold midwest, north or northeast, what are you waiting for?  Buy in Florida now while the deals are here.  The "Suncoast" of Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando Counties may be the most affordable waterfront area in the entire United States, with the exception of Mississippi's Katrina ravaged coastline.

SELLERS - it will not be easy, but there is hope according to the Bergstrom Center. Let's hope they are more right than Don Tomnitz.