Welcome to.................................... The Pasco Real Estate Blog.com....... The Pinellas Real Estate Blog.com.... The Hillsborough Real Estate Blog.com, & The Hernando Real Estate Blog.com, hosted by John & Lisa Durkin, "The Topgun Team", where we discuss issues related to, and affecting Real Estate in Pasco County, Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Hernando County, and the greater Tampa Bay, Florida area. Comments and participation encouraged. Please join our discussion!

Well, it's been a long time since we've posted anything here. We keep waiting for the opportunity to talk about something positive, but the positive news just doesn't seem to happen. Now, in the wake of the sub-prime mortgage debacle, Wall Street itself is melting down.

So is there any good news?  Actually - YES. If you want to buy a home in West Pasco County, New Port Richey, Port Richey, Hudson, Holiday, or Trinity, Florida there is no better time to buy than now. It's a sad situation for sellers, but a great situation for buyers. Now is the time to buy - except for one little problem;  yeah that mortgage thing again.

Human Interaction Is All About Managing Expectations

Yes, it starts when we’re children, growing up, dating, married, negotiating business deals, or planning the family vacation. Let us help you manage YOUR expectations about this Real Estate market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales of existing homes in August fell to their lowest point in five years. The NAR says it expects more dismal figures for September. Our observations of a market on life support here in the Tampa area corroborate that assessment.

A broader gauge, the S&P / Case-Shiller index showed prices in the 20 largest metro areas off 3.9% in July compared to July of last year. That’s the largest drop since the index started its decline in February.

So what’s the expectations part? Don’t expect miracles – from anyone. If you are unhappy with your current Realtor® you probably will not find a miracle worker anywhere else. If they are not doing a complete, aggressive, and total marketing campaign on the internet, they are probably not who you want. But, even if they are, they are only fighting for what few qualified buyers exist in this market. If you are not patient, or can not weather this storm, you are in for tough times. Expect the worst, and maybe you may get a small but pleasant surprise.

RECOVERY, EXPECTATIONS, MANSIONS AND MOBILE HOMES

It’s been a long time since we’ve posted anything to this blog. The reason for this is that we’ve been waiting for something positive to say about the Real Estate market and all the forces acting on it. Every time we were ready to post a little note extolling some positive little piece of news, another item would come out in the news that would totally blast down our little glimmer of hope. Quite frankly, we’ve worked real hard to not be the Chicken Littles of the local Real Estate blog circuit. With everything going on, that strategy has basically kept us in the sidelines. Our apologies to all of you who had come to rely on a steady diet of our opinions.

Well, the sky has NOT fallen. We’ve endured hurricanes and their economic impact; the resulting insurance crisis and the insurance industry’s excuse to rip us all off and rack up records profits; the rising property tax burden that has come from increased assessed values while not adjusting for reduced values; and then finally, a meltdown of the sub-prime mortgage market, that has led to a wholesale drying up of available mortgage money. The crisis in this industry is nationwide and ha gotten the attention of the President, the Congress, the Fed and Wall Street – especially as Bear Stearns lost billions on sub-prime bets, giant Countrywide has stared down bankruptcy, and many other lenders have gone out of business quickly.

So, why are we writing now? Well, the fed has dropped short term rates and although that will not quickly and directly affect available mortgage money, it has injected a glimmer of hope into the economy. Hopefully, that little transfusion will pump enough energy into housing consumer confidence that the anemia will disappear and activity will start to be evident.

In the meantime, our recommendation is to stay put if you do not have to sell. If you can buy, do it now! Prices in this area may never be lower, especially on waterfront property. The waterfront in our area is the most affordable in the entire United States. They are not making more of it, and for those with long term vision, the value will always appreciate more than property not on water.

If you have to sell, there is no one out there who does what we do, when it comes to aggressive internet marketing of your home. Please call us and let us tell you what Topgun Real Estate Marketing™ can do for the sale of your home. Let Us Accomplish YOUR Mission! ™

Finally, for all you prospective sellers, all we can say is that you MUST have realistic expectations about the market value of your home. There are virtually NO buyers out there right now, so essentially our homes almost have NO market value. For the few buyers out there, the power is in their hands. They do not care about what your home appraised for last year or that you just spent thirty grand on granite countertops. If the homes in your neighborhood are selling for $150,000 and your home is similar, you home is worth $150,000, NOT $250,000. If your home is not like the other homes on the street, but you are overbuilt, you are not going to command a premium versus your neighbors. In fact, the opposite is true. Your mansion will be dragged down in value by the rusty mobile home next door, and its price will actually go up a little because you built the mansion next door. That, friends, is true in good and bad markets.

NEW ORLEANS - HURRICANES, HOUSES AND OYSTERS

I (John) am in New Orleans for a few days of duty with the Marine Corps Reserve. This has been my place of duty since summer of 2003. Previous to that I used to travel here on a regular basis for meetings and business. So, although I am no expert on the city, I have an association with it and a love of its culture going back about sixteen years. Lisa has availed herself of the opportunity to join me here whenever possible to enjoy its pleasures, as well.

The prime one for both of us, of course, is the food. You have always been able to, and can still eat your way into oblivion form one end of the city to the other. Lisa’s favorite restaurants are Bayona on Dauphine St and The Court of Two Sisters sandwiched between Royal and Bourbon, both for their great courtyard ambience. We’ve also enjoyed great seafood meals at J. W. Fins – can’t go wrong there. My personal favorites are actually in Metairie, just west of N’awlins – both for their baked oysters – Drago’s and the Acme Oyster House.

We love the architecture of the French Quarter and the southern charm of the garden district. We’ve enjoyed the revelry of Bourbon Street and partied on Mississippi Steamboats. One of Lisa’s favorite stories is how I almost ran out of gas crossing the causeway bridge over Lake Pontchartrain late at night, twenty five years ago (no - she will NEVER let me forget!) . My point is we go back a long way here.

The devastation of Katrina and then Rita had a personal impact on us. In addition to watching a favorite place get nearly destroyed, we watched helplessly as some business and military associates lost homes and memories.

My military unit’s headquarters evacuated to Atlanta after Katrina, although we were involved in providing forces for and assisting in the rescue and recovery operation. We came back to town in December to show them that the Marines were here to stay -- We’ve had a long and supportive relationship with the city for many years. At that time, I got a chance to see all the devastation first hand. We were staying in the Marriot hotel across the street form the convention center where tens of thousands had sought refuge on the street. To Marriott’s credit, they had already invested millions to get that looted, damaged hotel back up to four star status so soon after the hurricane. The area around it, however, was a stark contrast to what it had been. Dark, dirty, and virtually abandoned save for the FEMA, Red Cross, and hazmat personnel. There were, luckily, a few beer and food establishments that had opened back up.

The area where my Marine Corps duty station is, on the far east side of the French Quarter, was a much worse story. The area around it had been flooded badly, and to drive to work was like driving through a no-man’s land. It was dark, destroyed, dirty and a place of absolute despair. You’ve seen all the images, and they are all real and vast. We’re not talking about a small area made to look like the whole city. It was and IS the whole city.

I’ve watched New Orleans recover now, on a fairly monthly basis since Katrina hit. The downtown area was booming this weekend for the Jazz and Heritage Festival. The neighborhood around my duty station is VERY SLOWLY coming back to life. It will take years and billions of dollars to make it whole again. Much as I love the place I question whether it’s smart to rebuild a city below sea level.

What is amazing is that even though there has supposedly been a very high demand for housing here, the reality seems to say otherwise. I perused the Real Estate sales statistics and looked at individual homes. There are homes here in very nice neighborhoods that have been on the market for a reasonable price for over a year. It’s hard to believe that this almost dead nationwide housing market has even stopped activity here. The demand should be here as residents, opportunists, and new blood return - The supply is certainly severely limited. However, the demand seems to be lacking. What will bring it back here? What will bring it back to the Florida Gulf Coast? Is it the prospect of more hurricane activity this year? I’ll take my chances on the Gulf Coast lifestyle with its occasional tropical storm over the no-notice tornado lifestyle of the Kansas plains any day.

I’ll reaffirm it tonight over Drago’s awesome, baked oysters and an Abita Amber or two.

A TOUGH HOUSING MARKET, AND WHAT BUREAUCRATS ARE DOING TO MAKE IT WORSE.

In a story by the Associated Press, According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the sub-prime mortgage market. Sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent in March, compared to February. It was the biggest one-month decline since a 12.6 percent drop in January 1989, another period of recession conditions in housing. The drop left sales in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million units, the slowest pace since June 2003.

The steep sales decline was accompanied by an eighth straight fall in median home prices, the longest such period of falling prices on record. The median price fell to $217,000, a drop of 0.3 percent from the price a year ago.

The fall in sales in March was bigger than had been expected and it dashed hopes that housing was beginning to mount a recovery after last year’s big slump. That slowdown occurred after five years in which sales of both existing and new homes had set records.

David Lereah, the chief economist for the NAR says that troubles in mortgage lending are also playing a significant part in depressing sales. Lenders have tightened standards with the rising delinquencies in mortgages especially in the sub-prime market, where borrowers with weak credit histories obtained their loans.

There was weakness in every part of the country in March. Sales fell by 10.9 percent in the Midwest. They were down 9.1 percent in the West, 8.2 percent in the Northeast and 6.2 percent in the South.

This brings up our beef with bureaucrats. This past Saturday, as we attempted to conduct an Open House at our listing in Clearwater located at www.ClearwaterComfort.com, we were phoned by a man identifying himself as an official of the City of Clearwater. He informed us that we were in violation of federal, state and city laws pertaining to placement of signs on the streets and right of ways. Now we are all for keeping the streets free of unsightly signs and distractions. We utilize professional “Open House” signs that were only in view for six hours or so. We also believe in following the law.

However, we also believe strongly in using every vehicle possible to sell the homes of our listing customers. Although Open Houses have a statistically minimal chance of selling a home, we do them for our customers, and you never know if that magic buyer will show up as a result. In the horrible market we’ve just recapped, we must use every tool available.

Well, we just want to make it clear that your city government is doing everything they can to thwart that effort. Although one might believe that the City of Clearwater has a vested interest in positive home sale statistics, including higher home prices, assessed values and therefore, higher taxes and revenues, the myopic bureaucrats who infect every layer of government and are incapable of common sense thought are always there to prove that simple thought wrong. We will continue to fight to the bitter end to sell all the homes we list. We will do whatever is ethical, legal, and effective. Just let it be known that the mindless bureaucrats will be there to help prevent the sale of YOUR HOME. Please send them a letter of thanks for keeping the road pretty.

MANATEES AND NEW HOME SALES

D.R. Horton, the country's largest home builder announced this week that second quarter sales orders fell 37%. New home demand is obviously way down.

In other news, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service might reclassify the manatee as "threatened" instead of "endangered".  This is because the agency believes the animal has rebounded from the brink of extinction. A 1991 survey counted 1267 manatees in Florida waters. Last year scientists found 3116. Although it may not be good that the manatee will lose some protective status, it is good news that the numbers have improved so dramatically over 16 years.

We are hopeful that the numbers on new and resale homes in Florida and across the nation also indicate removal from the "endangered" list to the "threatened" list, and maybe even better!

BAD NEWS / GOOD NEWS

This has been a week of mostly good Real Estate news with just a bit of bad news for those of us in Florida. Let’s just get the bad news out of the way first. Whether or not they come true, the weather guessers have started with their doomsday predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. They predicted apocalypse for summer 2006 and NOTHING happened. It looks like more dire predictions for 2007 and unfortunately those predictions are not good for Real Estate activity. According to Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University on Tuesday, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be “very active,” with 17 named storms. He expects five intense or major hurricanes, with a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast. Last year, Gray's forecast -- as well as government forecasts -- was higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's team said the reason was a late El Nino that altered oceanic conditions. There were nine named Atlantic storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, in 2006. That was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

According to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® a forward-looking index based on pending home sales indicates that the aforementioned bad weather, a cold stormy winter, and possibly the loss of some sub-prime lending will soften sales closed in March and April. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, stood at 109.3 — down 8.5 percent from February 2006 when it reached 119.4. It is 0.7 percent higher, however, than a downwardly revised reading of 108.5 in January. Earlier, mild weather caused the index to spike at 113.3 in December.

In contrast to this, however, the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® reported that its pending-home-sales index rose 0.7% in February, indicating some encouragement for future home buying. The increase in February followed a revised decline of 4.2% in January. On a year-over-year basis, the index was down 8.5%. The Index, based on contracts signed in February, stood at 109.3 – down 8.5 percent from February 2006 when it reached 119.4, but still 0.7 percent higher than a downwardly revised reading of 108.5 in January. Earlier, mild weather caused the index to spike at 113.3 in December. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says there has been a steady narrowing from year-ago readings since last July. “If it wasn’t for the unusually bad weather in February, we’d be seeing a better performance in pending home sales,” he says. “We also may be seeing some fallout from a decline in sub-prime lending, but a slight improvement in the more volatile month-to-month index is encouraging – the data suggests an underlying stabilization is taking place in the housing market, but it will take another month or two to clarify.”

Florida Population Growth

Here's something along the lines of our last post on Coastal Population Trends - A new study by the University of Florida estimates that in spite of two bad hurricane seasons in 2005 and 2005, the number of year-round households in Florida has grown fifteen percent in the last six years.

Flagler County, whose Chamber of Commerce boasts the county as the 'fastest growing in the US",  had the largest growth rate with a 76 percent increase. The next highest by rate of growth were Sumter, Osceola, Walton, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Lee, and Lake counties. When measured purely by total numbers Miami-Dade had the largest increase. and 2006. It was followed by Hillsborough, Orange, Palm Beach, Lee, and Broward counties.

With the exception of Hillsborough, we didn't get an exceptional share of that growth in our area, but even at the average of fifteen percent growth for the NEXT six years it can only lead to more demand for housing and appreciation in prices.  For those in the game for the long haul, investment in the local real estate market will pay off. 

Coastal Population Trends

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, in its publication NOAA Population Trends Along the Coastal United States: 1980-2008; Fifty Three Percent (53%) of the population, or 153 million Americans, live in the 673 coastal communities of the United States. This is an increase of 33 million people since 1980. 

It is probably no surprise to anyone that the American population is moving away from the heartland to the coastal areas.  What that means is, in the long run, if you own a home in the interior, there will be less demand for it as the years go by.

On the other hand, if you have the foresight to buy along ANY coastal area, especially, coastal area that is underpriced, there will most likely be high demand, and thus higher appreciation and value in the future. The
Florida Gulf coast of Pasco, Pinellas, Hernando and Hillsborough Counties is some of the lowest, if not, THE LOWEST priced coastal area in the U.S., save for the hurricane battered coast of Mississippi.  Those who buy here now will realize the rewards that come with another 33 million people, OR MORE, migrating to the coastline in the next 28 year period.

Look for the NOAA's Population Trend report around 2030 to see if we were correct in our assessment!

PUT REAL ESTATE IN YOUR IRA!

Few people are aware that the federal tax laws allow them to open a self directed IRA that allows many more investment options than the stock market and mutual funds.  If you are investing in Real Estate for RETIREMENT, you may want to consider putting your holdings in an Individual RETIREMENT Account.  In fact, we are fairly certain that a financial advisor will tell you that you SHOULD put you investments into an IRA.  Why?  Because it will help your wealth grow faster, and tax free.

A self-directed IRA opens the door to many investment opportunities beyond traditional securities, bonds, CDs, and mutual funds. What kind of investments are permitted?  With the exception of certain prohibited transactions, a self-directed account enables investments in a wide range of both traditional and non-traditional assets. For example, some of the most popular options are Real Estate, Deeds of Trust and mortgages, secured and unsecured notes, and finally LLCs, corporations, partnerships and joint ventures.

We have most of our own investment property in a Self-Directed IRA.  We are experienced and knowledgable about the process.  If you would like assistance or have questions about doing the same, please call us or email us. 

We use Entrust of Tampa Bay, LLC as our Self-Directed IRA administrator. We are extremely happy with their program and service and give them our highest recommendation.  If you live in, or are considering investment in New Port Richey Real Estate, Port Richey Real Estate, Trinity Real Estate, Gulf Harbors Real Estate, Waterfront Real Estate, Pasco County Real Estate, Pinellas County Real Estate, or any Real Estate in the Tampa Bay area, for ling term or short term retirement purposes, please call John & Lisa Durkin, "The Topgun Team", at 727-858-8247, or email us at TheTopgunTeam@Yahoo.com.

If you live in the Tampa Bay area use the link below to contact Entrust of Tampa Bay, LLC to find out about their great program. Jack Callahan and Doug Davenport are professionals who will walk you through the entire process.  http://www.theentrustgroup.com/local/franchise.aspx?affiliate=11

If you live outside the Tampa Bay area you can visit the Entrust Group at www.TheEntrustGroup.com.

Last week the chief executive of the nation's largest homebuilder by volume said that 2007 would "stink" (quote changed to prevent bot spam) for his company.  Obviously, when someone in his position speaks so eloquently, people listen. Many of those people believe that his words are a strong signal that a recovery in the battered new home business is far away. As reported by NBC, speaking at an investor conference in New York, D.R. Horton CEO Donald J. Tomnitz said he expects to get more pricing power in 2008 but not before home prices continue their decline this year as builders try to sell the glut of houses currently on the market. “I don’t want to be too sophisticated here, but ’07 is going to (stink), all 12 months of the calendar year,” Tomnitz said.

In spite of Tomnitz' gloomy forecast, there is a little good news for Florida Real Estate Sellers and Realtors. According to Realtor magazine, "Price declines appear to be easing for single-family homes, according to a quarterly study by the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. Statewide existing-home median sales prices remained stable at $242,100 in the fourth quarter. A year ago, it was $245,600, a slight 1 percent decrease.  In 2001, the fourth-quarter statewide median sales price was $128,400, which reflects an increase of 88.5 percent over the five-year period.

The statewide median sales price for condos decreased 3 percent to $205,200 for the three-month period; a year ago, it was $212,100.  The study, which interviews 318 experts, including lawyers, financial advisers, title insurers, and real estate professionals, concluded that fundamentally the Florida market is strong. 'One important indicator of the real estate market is occupancy rates, and these appear to be stable or increasing in most markets, including apartments, office buildings, retail space, and industrial warehouse and distribution space,'  says Wayne Archer, director of the Bergstrom Center."

So, what does all this mean for us? It's gut check time baby!  Are you ready for the long war?  (we're not talking' about the Global War On Terror - we're talking' about the Florida Real Estate market!)

BUYERS - The time is NOW!  You'll not  find deals like this for a long time. The market is full of them.  If you're living in the freezing cold midwest, north or northeast, what are you waiting for?  Buy in Florida now while the deals are here.  The "Suncoast" of Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando Counties may be the most affordable waterfront area in the entire United States, with the exception of Mississippi's Katrina ravaged coastline.

SELLERS - it will not be easy, but there is hope according to the Bergstrom Center. Let's hope they are more right than Don Tomnitz.

Well, this month's "beige book" form the Federal Reserve has no real surprises, but it does have a glimmer of good news for those of us in Florida and the Fed's 6th district.

Although their nationwide assessment was of a "weak" housing market and sluggish auto sales, the 6th district was characterized by modest business expansion and generally positive tourism. Although home sales and building were below year ago levels, the pace of the decline has lessened since the end of last year.

Overall, things in the northeast, north, and midwest, where our potential buyers may come from were fairly bleak in the report.  this is a concern because even though the blizzard conditions may again motivate emigration from the cold climates to sunny Florida, if they can not sell their homes, they will not be coming down here anytime soon.  So, while weather that motivates change up north is good, we must all cross our fingers for a better housing market there amongst those who intend to stay.