Welcome to.................................... The Pasco Real Estate Blog.com....... The Pinellas Real Estate Blog.com.... The Hillsborough Real Estate Blog.com, & The Hernando Real Estate Blog.com, hosted by John & Lisa Durkin, "The Topgun Team", where we discuss issues related to, and affecting Real Estate in Pasco County, Pinellas County, Hillsborough County, Hernando County, and the greater Tampa Bay, Florida area. Comments and participation encouraged. Please join our discussion!

A TOUGH HOUSING MARKET, AND WHAT BUREAUCRATS ARE DOING TO MAKE IT WORSE.

In a story by the Associated Press, According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the sub-prime mortgage market. Sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent in March, compared to February. It was the biggest one-month decline since a 12.6 percent drop in January 1989, another period of recession conditions in housing. The drop left sales in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.12 million units, the slowest pace since June 2003.

The steep sales decline was accompanied by an eighth straight fall in median home prices, the longest such period of falling prices on record. The median price fell to $217,000, a drop of 0.3 percent from the price a year ago.

The fall in sales in March was bigger than had been expected and it dashed hopes that housing was beginning to mount a recovery after last year’s big slump. That slowdown occurred after five years in which sales of both existing and new homes had set records.

David Lereah, the chief economist for the NAR says that troubles in mortgage lending are also playing a significant part in depressing sales. Lenders have tightened standards with the rising delinquencies in mortgages especially in the sub-prime market, where borrowers with weak credit histories obtained their loans.

There was weakness in every part of the country in March. Sales fell by 10.9 percent in the Midwest. They were down 9.1 percent in the West, 8.2 percent in the Northeast and 6.2 percent in the South.

This brings up our beef with bureaucrats. This past Saturday, as we attempted to conduct an Open House at our listing in Clearwater located at www.ClearwaterComfort.com, we were phoned by a man identifying himself as an official of the City of Clearwater. He informed us that we were in violation of federal, state and city laws pertaining to placement of signs on the streets and right of ways. Now we are all for keeping the streets free of unsightly signs and distractions. We utilize professional “Open House” signs that were only in view for six hours or so. We also believe in following the law.

However, we also believe strongly in using every vehicle possible to sell the homes of our listing customers. Although Open Houses have a statistically minimal chance of selling a home, we do them for our customers, and you never know if that magic buyer will show up as a result. In the horrible market we’ve just recapped, we must use every tool available.

Well, we just want to make it clear that your city government is doing everything they can to thwart that effort. Although one might believe that the City of Clearwater has a vested interest in positive home sale statistics, including higher home prices, assessed values and therefore, higher taxes and revenues, the myopic bureaucrats who infect every layer of government and are incapable of common sense thought are always there to prove that simple thought wrong. We will continue to fight to the bitter end to sell all the homes we list. We will do whatever is ethical, legal, and effective. Just let it be known that the mindless bureaucrats will be there to help prevent the sale of YOUR HOME. Please send them a letter of thanks for keeping the road pretty.

MANATEES AND NEW HOME SALES

D.R. Horton, the country's largest home builder announced this week that second quarter sales orders fell 37%. New home demand is obviously way down.

In other news, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service might reclassify the manatee as "threatened" instead of "endangered".  This is because the agency believes the animal has rebounded from the brink of extinction. A 1991 survey counted 1267 manatees in Florida waters. Last year scientists found 3116. Although it may not be good that the manatee will lose some protective status, it is good news that the numbers have improved so dramatically over 16 years.

We are hopeful that the numbers on new and resale homes in Florida and across the nation also indicate removal from the "endangered" list to the "threatened" list, and maybe even better!

BAD NEWS / GOOD NEWS

This has been a week of mostly good Real Estate news with just a bit of bad news for those of us in Florida. Let’s just get the bad news out of the way first. Whether or not they come true, the weather guessers have started with their doomsday predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. They predicted apocalypse for summer 2006 and NOTHING happened. It looks like more dire predictions for 2007 and unfortunately those predictions are not good for Real Estate activity. According to Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University on Tuesday, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be “very active,” with 17 named storms. He expects five intense or major hurricanes, with a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast. Last year, Gray's forecast -- as well as government forecasts -- was higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's team said the reason was a late El Nino that altered oceanic conditions. There were nine named Atlantic storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, in 2006. That was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast.

According to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® a forward-looking index based on pending home sales indicates that the aforementioned bad weather, a cold stormy winter, and possibly the loss of some sub-prime lending will soften sales closed in March and April. The Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, stood at 109.3 — down 8.5 percent from February 2006 when it reached 119.4. It is 0.7 percent higher, however, than a downwardly revised reading of 108.5 in January. Earlier, mild weather caused the index to spike at 113.3 in December.

In contrast to this, however, the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® reported that its pending-home-sales index rose 0.7% in February, indicating some encouragement for future home buying. The increase in February followed a revised decline of 4.2% in January. On a year-over-year basis, the index was down 8.5%. The Index, based on contracts signed in February, stood at 109.3 – down 8.5 percent from February 2006 when it reached 119.4, but still 0.7 percent higher than a downwardly revised reading of 108.5 in January. Earlier, mild weather caused the index to spike at 113.3 in December. David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, says there has been a steady narrowing from year-ago readings since last July. “If it wasn’t for the unusually bad weather in February, we’d be seeing a better performance in pending home sales,” he says. “We also may be seeing some fallout from a decline in sub-prime lending, but a slight improvement in the more volatile month-to-month index is encouraging – the data suggests an underlying stabilization is taking place in the housing market, but it will take another month or two to clarify.”